Saturday 26 January 2013

Football's bubble close to bursting




Reading the increasingly depressing stories that seem to appear weekly about the latest club in huge financial trouble and our own unnerving, yet inevitable, accounts is it possible for clubs nowdays to compete outside the Premiership?

Theoretically if every club outside the PL is skint there should be a natural correction where by every club stops paying silly wages beyond their means and let the market equalise and operate at a sustainable level where they break even if not turn a small profit.

Because the gulf is so vast and ever widening between the PL and the rest there seems to be a mentality of get there at all costs. For 3 teams that will pay off. For those that miss out it's damaging and can set you back years financially and as a result on the pitch where it matters.

Catch 22 of the cliche of needing to speculate to accumulate but if the gamble doesn't pay off you're lumped with players on hefty contracts many of whom won't be snapped up by top level teams and won't necessarily want to walk away for the less rewarding contracts offered by rival teams in you're league or below.

Years back as Curbs and co demonstrated it was a realistic and possible option to craft a team together capable of promotion and survival in the PL with a and still turn a healthy profit or at least stay in the black. It's changed since then as we know too well having being lauded as the perfect model of how a football club should be run to where we were a couple of seasons ago and the slightly healthier in the short term position we find ousrselves in now.

It's a no win situation for clubs at our level and below. Dont spend the money on assembling the squads required for the best odds of promotion and chances are now the team will struggle to win their league if rivals are splashing the cash. Combined with that another downside being that crowds dwindle as floating fans bore of mediocraty or lack of instant success and vital revenue decreases further lengthening the odds of promotion.

Whilst management obviously plays a part in it and those shrewd in the tactical department compensate to a degree for lack of funds it is also requisite to be equally adept in the transfer market. And of course such managers are few and far between and likely to be highly sought after.



I think CP is a very good manager and whilst still cutting his cloth has done extremely well for us to have us competing and (perhaps over optimistically) not rolling round in hysterics at the notion that scraping a play off spot wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility. However had he not had the money which presented the financial clout over rival clubs and allowed him to fund our promotion winning team I'm not sure he or many other managers would necessarily have achieved it.

That is not of course taking anything away from the manager but I think the money aspect is such a determining factor in success in the game today. You can sense the frustration amongst fans that if funds had been available to bolster the squad with extra class this year then we probably would be soaring higher in the Championship.

I can only see it getting worse next season with the ridiculous money involved in the top flight. £70m for a team that finishes bottom?! How can any team compete with a relegated club that has the money to keep top flight players on hefty contracts for at least a season or two.

I can see in 5 years, if not sooner, an increase of yo yo clubs with the same 6 or so clubs trading places in the PL each season perhaps with a few lucky one offs who may somehow get their but by which time they won't have a snowball's chance in hell of even competing against the accumulated wealth of the other 19 teams who have soaked up the PL gravy train's rewards for a couple of seasons.



For anyone outside of this gold plated bubble it will probably be a case of the least worst run clubs "prospering" in the lower leagues as opposed to being well managed. Maybe similar to having a top league of 20 Rangers and Celtics whilst everyone outside of it will mirror Cowdenbeath and Raith Rovers on the pitch and on the balance sheets.

Maybe the masses don't care and "football" today is all about the big clubs, the soap opera and Balotelli's new haircut. We have Super Sunday pitting one millionaire who's shagged someone/said something/ snorted something on the box in a bit, who cares what is happening to Rotheram?

Unless there is a collective acknowledgement of the reality of the situation the game outside the PL will implode and without a drastic correction of the finacial situation there wont be any competition because there can't be.

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